ИСТИНА

The papers in the field of evolutionary economics prove that regions often remain in a set of sectors that corresponds to their current industrial structure. The region can develop both a diversified economy and a related economy. On the one hand, the high degree of connectivity (proximity) of the region's industries has a positive impact on economic development. Firstly, it stimulates economic growth through localization and agglomeration effects (Rastvortseva, 2017). Second, the linkages between industrial sectors contribute to structural change. Third, regions with greater diversity among related industries will demonstrate greater opportunities for learning and spread of secondary knowledge (Frenken, 2007). Regional branching as the process by which a new type of economic activity emerges from technologically related industries in the region is more common in such regions (Frenken & Boschma, 2007). On the other hand, a low level of industry connectivity gives the region some advantages. For example, the regions, with their diversified, unrelated industries, are better able to cope with unemployment, falling demand and other negative external factors. Also with the high level of competition among firms in the region operating in technologically related industries, there may be a cognitive blockage - the deliberate closure of the exchange of information, knowledge and technology. The purpose of the study is to develop an approach to assessing the possibility of transition to an innovative development trajectory based on the existing structure of industrial production and its relationship with the high-tech sector of the economy. The transition of the region's economy to a new development trajectory through innovation is possible only on the basis of industrial structures, labour market and institutions already established in the region (Neffke, 2011). If the region already has conditions for the development of high-tech economic activities, the movement from the traditional to the innovative path will be harmonious. Support for innovation development and the creation of a mechanism of inter-regional cooperation for continuous technological renewal are becoming the task of regional authorities. We have proposed a new approach to the assessment of technological proximity in order to determine the possible directions of the innovative way out of the trajectory of previous development. It differs from the traditional use of the localization coefficient, rather than the comparative advantage of exported product groups. The use of the localization coefficient allows to eliminate a number of drawbacks caused by externalities of foreign trade, peculiarities of statistical accounting of exporters, and can be acceptable for countries with a large domestic market and/or homogeneous structure of exports. The calculated proximity indexes allow us to identify those high-tech industries that already have the necessary prerequisites for their development in the region, i.e. technologically close industrial production is already developing. The sample for the survey is 198 manufacturing sectors located in 83 Russian regions. The survey period is 2016. The index of technological proximity was determined on the basis of the localization coefficient by the number of employees in the sectors of the economy. Fourteen sectors were classified as high-tech according to the OECD methodology. The paper describes the links between high technology and other industries in the Russian regions. The regions where high-tech industries are already developing and those with prerequisites for their development are identified. It is determined that less than 30% of the sub-sectors can be considered connected, among them, with the high-tech sector - 25%. Regions with comparative advantages in high-tech industries and related sectors have been identified. We have shown that certain regions can move forward by investing in interregional relations and internal innovations in entrepreneurship. These two conditions are conducive to a leapfrog development, reduce dependence on the established industrial structure, preserve comparative advantages and move to a qualitatively new path of development. The practical value of the work lies in the development of an analytical apparatus to make decisions about the possibility and directions of the region's departure from the trajectory of previous development. It is important to understand in which direction it is expedient to develop intersectoral cooperation in favor of the emergence of new economic sectors in the region. This will increase the efficiency of the regional policy of development of high-tech industries based on the existing economic structure.