ИСТИНА

We discuss the results of applying the method developed for early warning about arrival of ~10–100 MeV proton fluxes to the Earth after powerful eruptive events on the Sun, which uses the real time data received by the global network of ground-based neutron monitors. The retrospective analysis and comparison of the 2001–2006 observations indicate that more than 50% of solar proton events were omitted in such forecasting method. For higher reliability, it is necessary to use additional data on the state of solar and heliospheric activity including measurements onboard satellites and spacecreaft. We have investigated the energy and time dependence of solar energetic proton spectra I (E,t) measured by GOES satellites for all set of considered events. The approximations of obtained experimental dependences by power law functions for these events have been constructed. We have found a broad variety of different time profiles and shapes of this function with no standard behavior in the energy space. Nevertheless, some common features are seen in three groups of events which can be used in future for statistical classifications when more events will be investigated. The diversity of cases can be explained by specific situations on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as in the magnetosphere for acceleration and propagation of energetic particles.