ИСТИНА

Climate change projected for the 21st century is expected to affect different forest ecosystems with corresponding ecological, economic, and social impacts. Modeling is extensively used to estimate the impacts of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as for tree growth projections based on climate change scenarios. Here we use a process-based forward model of tree growth, VS-Lite, calibrated and independently validated on tree-ring data and forced by climate projections according to different greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. We estimated ensemble radial tree growth of pine for 14 selected sites in Povolzhie region in the 21st century. We further statistically estimate how projected changes of distributions of climatic extremes affect extremes in projected radial tree growth. The results of this study are crucial for the strategies of development of Povolzhie region in the near and remote future.