ИСТИНА

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is a viral infectious disease of cattle and buffalo causing a huge economic impact due to loss of productivity of infected animals. Being first introduced in Eurasia in 1989 with a consequent wide transboundary transmission since 2012, the disease is believed to primarily spread by arthropod vector. Hence, a potential range of the disease within an affected territory may be determined by environmental suitability for the vector habitat. The goal of the current study was to map the potential area within Eurasia where the LSD can be transmitted by its vector, and to assess the expected change of the area by 2060 using a projected climate data. The modeling was based on the BAM concept, where a potential ecological niche of a species is defined as an intersection of Biotic and Abiotic factors as well as an ability of the species to Migrate within the available area. The entire area of Eurasia with a cattle density higher than 0.5 heads/km2 was chosen as a model area (M), while abiotic factors were presented by a set of bioclimatic variables describing peak and trend values of the air temperature and precipitation within the study area. The maximum entropy based algorithm (Maxent) was applied to obtain a probability surface indicating an environmental suitability to LSD vector habitat using known LSD cases in Eurasia 2012 – 2020 as the presence locations. After calibration with the current climate data, Maxent model was projected with bioclimatic variables recalculated using the climate model INMCM4 for a ‘mild’ (RCP4.5) and ‘tough’ (RCP8.5) scenarios for 2041 – 2060. The results suggest a high suitability of the large territories of the South-West Europe, Mediterranean region and Central Asia for the LSD transmission. An expected climate change by a “mild” scenario may cause a strongest increase of the suitability in the Central Asia affecting the large areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, as well as in South East Asia. A “tough” climate change scenario may lead to a less pronounced expansion of the disease range in the Central Asia, while large territories of East Asia (Far East of Russia, eastern parts of Mongolia and China) are expected to become more suitable for the disease vector. Results of the study may contribute to the improvement of the current LSD preventive strategies by providing mapping background for the targeted surveillance and vaccination campaigns.