ИСТИНА

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic natural-focal disease caused by the pathogenic bacteria Leptospira. Its spread is related to certain ecological factors. The aim of the current research was to assess potential exposure to the infection as a function of environmental determinants in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation. We applied environmental niche modeling using leptospirosis cases in livestock and wild animals in 1995–2019 with regard to a set of landscape, climatic, and socio-economic variables, both for the current climate and for a projected climate for 2041-2060. The Maxent model performed well (AUC = 0.930), with the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean diurnal range, land cover type, and altitude being the most contributing variables. Consequent zoning based on the proportion of high-risk cells within each administrative unit suggested that 5 out of the 36 districts of the Republic are at high risk in the current climate conditions, with three more districts expected to demonstrate a high risk by 2060. This study presents the first ever attempt at leptospirosis ecological modeling in Russia. Its results correspond well to the findings of other authors and underline the importance of considering ecological factors when conducting leptospirosis risk assessment.