ИСТИНА

Detailed studies of temporal variations in seismicity have been carried out in the zone of the eastern coast of the Aegean Sea of Greece, where a catastrophic earthquake with М = 6.7 occurred in the vicinity of Samos Island on October 30, 2020. To describe the seismicity, the following were used: parameter b of the Gutenberg-Richter law, the value of the released seismic energy in the form of lgE2/3, and the index of seismic activity in the form of lgN. The results of the analysis showed that anomalies of seismic parameters with a duration of about 15 years are confidently identified before the investigated earthquake. Similar anomalies with the duration of about 4-6 years are observed before 5 strong earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 5.5 that occurred in the same region over the past 50 years. Studies of temporal variations in seismicity in three independent seismically active regions, in the vicinity of the islands Lesvos, Samos and Kos, show that between 2010 and 2020 years before three strong earthquakes with magnitudes М ≥ 6.1 that occurred in these regions, the precursors of the studied parameters are observed. The spatio-temporal sequence of the occurrence of these events is explained based on the concept of the formation of a seismic gap in the vicinity of the island Samos. It is concluded that over the next 10-15 years, in this region in the area between Lesvos and Kos, the occurrence of strong earthquakes from M≥6.1 is unlikely. At the same time, it is assumed that in the next 2-3 years to the south of Kos, in the area of Rhodes, a strong earthquake with M≥6.1 is possible.