ИСТИНА

In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic seas we used the spectral model SWAN with different NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind forcing for the 1948-2010. The model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency and duration. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The Initial Distribution and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to obtain probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The wave of more than 12 m were observed in the Caspian Sea and the Baltic Sea, more than 14 m in the Black Sea and over 5 m in the Azov Sea. The inundations in the Azov and Caspian seas were calculated with the storm surge model ADCIRC (Luettich, Westerink, 2008) with unstructured computational grid established within the SMS (Aquaveo Surface-water Modeling Solution), which are useful for the low-lying coastal areas. Wind fields were taken from the reanalysis of NCEP/NCAR, the hindcast period was 1948-2010, the changes of the annual mean level of the Caspian Sea were also taken into account. According to the simulation the highest surge height at the Caspian shoreline reached 2.5 m and 1.5 m at a distance of 30-40 km from the coast. The total area of flooding was about 6000 sq.km. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.