ИСТИНА

The study of temporal regularities of seismic and volcanic processes within the Pacifi c Ocean margin, the Alpine-Himalayan belt and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge showed the existence of two period ranges: “short”, 60±10 and 120±20 years, and “long” with common period T0≈250±25 and multiple periods 2T0≈450±50, 4Т0≈1000±100 and 8T0≈2000±200 years. The analysis led to the conclusion that seismic and volcanic processes occurring within the three most powerful tectonic belts are manifestations of a single wave geodynamic process. The magnitude of geodynamic event was determined in the usual way – proportional to the logarithm of the dropped elastic energy for earthquakes and proportional to volume of ejected material for volcanic eruptions. A unifi ed database of the strongest natural disasters and social events that have occurred over the past several thousand years was created. The magnitude of catastrophic events in both cases was determined using logarithmic scale based on socially signifi cant parameters – material damage and human casualties. Research of temporal patterns of events in this database was conducted using spectral and spectral correlation analysis of time series. The study showed that for both sets there are also two groups of periods: “short” 50±10 and 150±20 years, and “long” in the range of 210÷1650 years. In particular, there are periods multiples of geodynamic T0: 210±20, 500±50 and 1000(850÷1100)±100 years. As we can see the “structure” of characteristic periods of geodynamic and geosocial processes has common period T0≈250±50 years. The parameters that could determine characteristic periods of geodynamic and geosocial processes, could be the following values. The periods: TE=1 day – Earth’s rotation around its axis, TM=28 days – Moon’s rotation around the Earth, TJ=11.8 years – Jupiter’s rotation around the Sun responsible for the characteristic period of solar activity. Characteristic geodynamic parameters:VP=8 km/sec (VS=6 km/sec) – “fast” speed of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust and c0 =10 cm/sec – “slow” speed of rotational waves, R0≈100 km – the size of the Earth’s crust block and RE=6400 km – the Earth radius. Following min-max periods can be formed of these parameters: Tmin=TJTMс0/R0≈30-40 years and Tmax=TJTEVS/RE≈1500 years. As we can see, these two min-max values cover almost the entire possible range of the most characteristic geodynamic and geosocial periods. Furthermore the “common” period that is characteristic for both processes can be expressed as the geometric mean of two min-max values: T0= (TminTmax)1/2≈250 years. Thus, the analysis results showed the existence of common regularities of geodynamic and geosocial processes that allows to model them with common positions in the framework of Aristotle-Leibniz-Mach and Cuvier concepts about the unity of the world around us. The work is supported by RFBR grant №16-37-00229.