ИСТИНА

The forecasting of wind velocity and wind direction calculated by COSMO model for Moscow (for the cell of Moscow University location inside the city in latitude 55.69 North and in longitude 37.52 East) have been compared with the real wind measurements by Doppler ‘MODOS’ sodar. The comparison has been made for three model levels (300, 500 and 600 m) which correspond to 120, 320 and 420 m real height above the ground for one summer day with clear anticyclone conditions (August 22nd, 2012). The results of model calculations with different lead time for the forecast have been compared both with hourly and with 10 min averaging of the sodar data. As it was shown in average of the day the mean difference between forecasting estimations of wind velocity and their real values was quite negligible (only 0.02 m/s for hourly data averaging and 0.03 m/s for 10 min data averaging). Thus, the total error of model forecasting is close to zero that means an excellent result of modeling. However it should be noted that the nocturnal values of V are overestimated by the model nearly on 2 m/s whereas the diurnal ones – vice versa, are underestimated by it so that these errors have different sign and almost compensate each other in average of the day. The highest error of COSMO model forecasting of wind velocity was equal nearly to 4 m/s for separate measurements. The dynamics of errors from one forecast to another (with the step in time of each 6 hours) is analyzed in details. The mean error of the wind direction forecasting is equal to –12° with hourly average and to –13° with 10 min average of the sodar data. In general high quality of COSMO model forecasting of wind parameters has been confirmed by this analysis.