ИСТИНА

The prototype of fully automated system for estimation of seismotectonic tsunami hazard focused on simplicity and speed with usage of minimum of input data was created. The only input for system is focal mechanism which is usually becomes available within 15-30 minutes after seismic event. The focal mechanism data is provided by Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, USGS and GEOFON. At the first stage vector field of coseismic bottom deformation is obtained using earthquake fault parameters. Implementation of Okada formulae “ffaultdisp” is used for calculation. At the second stage the initial elevation in tsunami source is calculated and estimation of Soloviev-Imamura tsunami intensity is performed. Initial elevation is calculated taking into account vertical and horizontal components of bottom deformation, local bathymetry and smoothing effect of water layer. An auxiliary study was conducted to obtain relationship between potential energy of initial elevation of water in tsunami source and intensity of resulting tsunami. More than 200 historical events from HTDB/WLD and NGDC/WDS databases was statistically processed. The obtained relationship is used to assess the intensity of tsunami generated by earthquake under consideration. At the final stage numerical simulation of propagation of tsunami wave is performed. Linear shallow water code “SWETS” is used. Water surface time-histories in desired points as well as animations of wave propagation are produced. Details of implementation, physical constraints and future development of system will be discussed during the talk. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects 16-55-50018, 16-05-00053.