ИСТИНА

Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the Arctic are expected to change. It concerns high wind speed, too. Thus, accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to geophysical scientists, decision makers and society as a whole. The regime of extreme surface winds (10 m) over the seas of the Asian part of the Arctic is investigated as well as weather patterns (sea level pressure) accompanying high wind speeds. We examine the 50th and 99th percentile winds and their changes under global warming for the recent climate and RCP8.5 scenario of greenhouse gases concentration on the base of the CMIP5 earth system and climate models. Here, we show that despite intermodel variability of results almost all of models show statistically significant increase of high wind speed values by the end of the 21 century over major part of the Arctic seas. At the same time, changes of the mean and extreme wind speeds over continental part of the Asian Arctic are close to zero or slightly negative. Special attention is paid to the state-of-the-art changes of the surface wind speed extremes climate of the Kara Sea. An investigation reveals features of interannual, seasonal and daily variability of daily wind speed maximum over the Kara Sea during 1950-2012. Spatial patterns of the sea level pressure accompanying high wind speed are classified by the mean of cluster analysis into four groups.