ИСТИНА

цель настоящего проекта состоит в выявлении и сравнительном анализе реакции речного и подземного стока на текущие и прогнозируемые климатические изменения в регионах разной степени увлажнённости и среднегодовой температуры.

Surface water and groundwater are tightly interconnected across most landscapes, functioning as a singular resource and serving as fundamental components of the hydrologic cycle. Two distinct climatic regions within the Northern Hemisphere, namely mid-latitude warm drylands (30–45° N) and high-latitude cold deep seasonal freezing and permafrost-dominated regions (> 55° N), are experiencing accelerated changes in both surface and groundwater systems. In mid-latitude drylands, characterized by limited precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates, water scarcity poses significant threats to ecosystem and socioeconomics integrity. Conversely, in high-latitude permafrost-dominated regions, climate warming induces permafrost thaw, altering groundwater flow paths and exacerbating flooding risks. In high-latitude regions experiencing deep seasonal freezing, changes occur in the accumulation and melting of snow cover, as well as in the reduction of soil freezing depth. These alterations lead to shifts in the annual hydrograph of groundwater recharge and discharge into the river network, consequently resulting in changes in minimum river runoff. This project aims to unravel the intricacies of surface-groundwater interactions across the Northern Hemisphere by studying these contrasting climatic regions. Specifically, the research will delve into the underlying mechanisms, feedback processes, and implications for water resource management and ecosystem sustainability. To achieve this, four mid-latitude warm and dry large basins (i.e., Yellow, Heihe, Tarim, Amu Darya) and six high-latitude cold and (sub-)humid basins (i.e., Volga, Northern Dvina, Nadym, Lena, Kolyma, Amur-Heilongjiang) will be selected for investigation. In particular, 11 subbasins (plots) ranging in area from 103 to 104 km2 within the aforementioned large basins will be thoroughly investigated, following the aridity gradient for mid-latitude regions and the permafrost gradient for high-latitude regions. Field campaigns will be conducted to gather hydrological data, including streamflow, river and groundwater levels, and soil moisture content across selected basins. Geophysical methods such as ground-penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography will be employed to assess talik distribution and its impact on groundwater-surface water exchange. Utilizing machine learning approaches, missing hydrological data will be reconstructed, and hydrograph separation methods will be employed to quantify groundwater-surface water interaction. Furthermore, hydrological and hydrogeological (i.e., geo-hydrological) models will be developed to simulate surface-groundwater exchange processes and investigate possible future changes under varying climate change scenarios. These predictions will be based on modern high-resolution climatic databases containing data from climate reanalyses and downscaling of ensembles of climate projections for the end of the 21st century. Through interdisciplinary research and innovative methodologies, the proposed research will enhance our understanding of the facts and causes underlying changes in surface-groundwater exchange, as well as their specific responses to climate variability. It will also contribute to a greater global insight into adaptation strategies for water-related disasters, including droughts and floods, both at the regional and continental levels.

Суть проекта состоит в том, что на основе модельно-ориентированного подхода анализ влияния существующих климатических изменений на поверхностный и подземный сток и прогноз изменений стока выполняется на региональном и локальном уровнях. В методическом отношении рабочая программа исследований состоит из пяти основных составляющих: 1) сбор метеорологических и гидрологических данных и полевые исследования; 2) выявление и атрибуция изменений климата и взаимодействия поверхностных и подземных вод с использованием реанализа стока и исторических климатических данных; 3) разработка геогидрологических моделей, описывающих отображающей обмен поверхностных и подземных вод между гидрологическими системами; 4) геогидрологическое моделирование на уровне суббассейна с использованием климатических прогнозов на 21 век для оценки ожидаемых изменений взаимодействия поверхностных и подземных вод и доступных водных ресурсов: 5) обобщение результатов исследований