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The frequency change of technosphere fires in Russia in the short term (according to the results of mathematical modeling)тезисы доклада
- Авторы: VASHCHALOVA T.V., KUDIN V.N., SVETLOSANOV V.A.
- Сборник: Book of abstracts of International Geographical Union Regional Conference “Geography, Culture and Society for Our Future Earth”, 17–21 August 2015, Moscow, Russia
- Серия: Thematic Session "Cultural Regionalism and Regional Identity"
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2015
- Издательство: Izdatel'stvo Moskovskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta im.M.V.Lomonosova/Publishing House of Moscow State University
- Местоположение издательства: Russian Federation
- Первая страница: 752
- Аннотация: Technosphere fires is one of the most significant threats to sustainable socio-economic development of the country. Their annual incidence exceeds 100 thousand cases, and the damage is tens of billions of rubles. Correlation analysis of long - term statistical series of the frequency of fires and number of climatic, socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the regions of Russia has allowed to detail the most significant. The most important of these is the number of population of the region. Among others, the duration and severity of the cold period, the level of general and teenager crime, the proportion of the number of population living in institutions for the elderly, the ratio of per capita incomes with subsistence minimum, the coefficient of the migration growth/decline of the number of population, the level of unemployment and others. Author’s mathematical model, built on the base of twenty-year time series of statistical data makes possible to construct a baseline scenario of the change the frequency of technospheric fires of the Russian Federation regions using as the main variable the changes of the number of population of the region in time. The analysis of the impact of the above-mentioned additional characteristics of the number of the region population to the frequency technospheric fires is made.
- Добавил в систему: Ващалова Татьяна Владимировна