Аннотация:We examined the temporal seismicity variation in the north-west Himalayas and the adjacent
regions in relation to strong earthquake occurrences in the period 1970-2010. The aim
was to promote seismic hazard assessment and to show the possibilities of strong earthquake
forecasting by means of the FastBEE computer tool. The temporal variation of the
seismicity is expressed in terms of three basic seismic parameters: the logarithm of the number
of earthquakes logN, the seismic energy released in the mode logE2/3 and the b-value of
the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation.
Significant changes to relative mean values, forming consecutive relative minima and
maxima, of the obtained temporal variation series of the seismicity parameters can be considered
anomalies. These anomalies were investigated before strong (magnitude Mw≥5.6.) earthquake occurrences and were successfully correlated with 12 strong earthquakes. The mean time of the duration of the
anomalies before the origin time of the impending earthquake were estimated to be equal to 3.3±1.3 years. We conclude that, in the region under study, the established correlations can be useful for the intermediate-term forecasting of strong earthquakes and that the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of seismicity by means of the FastBEE tool can contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard status in a target area. The available earthquake data and the results obtained indicate that after the beginning of 2006, the temporal variation of the seismicity does not present
clear prognostic anomalies. This behavior is compatible with the absence of earthquakes with a magnitude of Mw 6.0 or more in the area examined.