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Pre-storm ULF variations in the solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field as key parameters to build a mid-term prognosis of geomagnetic stormsтезисы доклада
- Авторы: Kogai T.G., Khabarova O.V., Mingalev O.V.
- Сборник: The International Conference “Gringauz 100: Plasma In The Solar System”
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2018
- Место издания: ИКИ РАН Москва
- Первая страница: 140
- Последняя страница: 142
- Аннотация: A constant improvement of geomagnetic storm prediction techniques represents one of key tasks of the solar-terrestrial physics. The biggest problem of space weather predictions is that most prognoses can produce an alert just ~40 minutes in advance of a geomagnetic storm commencement; therefore there is no time to implement space weather counter-measures. Short- and mid-term prognoses of geomagnetic storms are built on using the instant solar wind speed V and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B strength/direction measured at L1 as model parameters. However, this does not account for the prehistory and additionally assumes that both severe and weaker geomagnetic storms of any kind are produced by a combination of the same key solar wind parameters. As a result, all prognostic techniques focus on predictions of high-speed streams, mainly, interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Meantime, it is known that a mechanism of excitation of weak and moderate geomagnetic storms is not the same as for severe geomagnetic storms. As a result, most prognoses fail to predict such storms. The accuracy of mid-term prognoses that could give longer alert times (from several hours to 3 days) and greater flexibility in making a decision is still low. We discuss here how to predict geomagnetic storms from several hours to three days in advance, employing a technique suggested by Khabarova in 2004. The technique uses the solar wind density and its pre-storm variations in the ULF range as predictors.
- Добавил в систему: Мельник Михаил Николаевич