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One-Month-Lead Predictability of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices Based on the Zonal Winds by the APCC Multimodel Ensembleстатья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 11 апреля 2019 г.
- Авторы: Park Hye-Jin, Kryjov Vladimir N., Ahn Joong-Bae
- Журнал: Journal of Climate
- Том: 31
- Номер: 21
- Год издания: 2018
- Издательство: American Meteorological Society
- Местоположение издательства: United States
- Первая страница: 8945
- Последняя страница: 8960
- Аннотация: The seasonal predictability of Asian summer monsoon indices characterizing horizontal and vertical zonal wind shear is investigated using 1-month-lead hindcast datasets from seven coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the operational multimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) for the 1983–2010 period. The summer monsoon indices analyzed in this study represent the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), and the newly defined northeastern Asian summer monsoon (NEASM). For the WNPSM and NEASM indices, we also analyze the prediction skill of the index components separately. The study demonstrates that the operational APCCMMEsystem reliably predicts most of the summer monsoon indices and their components, with correlation coefficients exceeding the 99% confidence level. Analysis of the ocean sources of the prediction skill of the indices reveals that the strong relationships of most of the monsoon indices and their components with sea surface temperature (SST) are not confined to the equatorial Pacific but rather are dispersed throughout the World Ocean, with the leading role played by the north Indian Ocean SST anomalies. This conclusion is supported by the analysis of correlations between the monsoon indices and the tropical SST indices. The correlations between the SST anomalies and all the summer monsoon indices in the MME predictions are stronger than those in the observations. However, overestimation of the role of the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the seasonal model hindcasts results in some predictability deterioration of the SASM and NEASM indices.
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Прикрепленные файлы
| № | Имя | Описание | Имя файла | Размер | Добавлен |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Полный текст | Park_Kryjov_Ahn_2018.pdf | 5,0 МБ | 14 августа 2019 [kryjov] |