Ensemble seasonal forecast of extreme water inflow into a large reservoir

Gelfan, A.; Motovilov, Y.; Moreido, V.

Авторы: Gelfan A., Motovilov Yu, Moreido V.
Сборник: Proc. IAHS
Том: 369
Год издания: 2015
Первая страница: 115
Последняя страница: 120
DOI: 10.5194/piahs-369-115-2015
Аннотация: An approach to seasonal ensemble forecast of unregulated water inﬂow into a large reservoir was developed. The approach is founded on a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG driven by Monte-Carlo generated ensembles of weather scenarios for a speciﬁed lead-time of the forecast (3 months ahead in this study). Case study was carried out for the Cheboksary reservoir (catchment area is 374000km2) located on the middle Volga River. Initial watershed conditions on the forecast date (1 March for spring freshet and 1 June for summer low-water period) were simulated by the hydrological model forced by daily meteorological observations several months prior to the forecast date. A spatially distributed stochastic weather generator was used to produce time-series of daily weather scenarios for the forecast lead-time. Ensemble of daily water inﬂow into the reservoir was obtained by driving the ECOMAG model with the generated weather time-series. The proposed ensemble forecast technique was veriﬁed on the basis of the hindcast simulations for 29 spring and summer seasons beginning from 1982 (the year of the reservoir ﬁlling to capacity) to 2010. The veriﬁcation criteria were used in order to evaluate an ability of the proposed technique to forecast freshet/low-water events of the pre-assigned severity categories.
Добавил в систему: Гельфан Александр Наумович

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Ensemble seasonal forecast of extreme water inflow into a large reservoirстатья

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