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A study of effectiveness of the ensemble long-term forecasts of spring floods issued with physically based models of the river runoff formationстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 1 августа 2016 г.
- Авторы: Kuchment L.S., Gelfan A.
- Журнал: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
- Том: 34
- Номер: 2
- Год издания: 2009
- Издательство: Allerton Press Inc.
- Местоположение издательства: United States
- Первая страница: 100
- Последняя страница: 109
- DOI: 10.3103/S106837390902006X
- Аннотация: In this paper, possible ways to increase effectiveness of the long-term ensemble spring floods forecasting and to assess their uncertainty based on the physical-mathematical model of the runoff formation (for the Vyatka River case study) are studied. It is shown that deterministic forecasts issued by using this approach are more accurate than those obtained from the traditional forecasting methods based on regression relationships. Probabilistic methods of forecasting of the spring flood volume and maximum discharge, which are issued by using various ways of the weather ensembles setting, are compared. Reliability of probabilistic forecasts of the volume and maximum discharge is estimated.
- Добавил в систему: Гельфан Александр Наумович