Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatka

Kopylova, G.N.; Lyubushin, A.A.; Boldina, S.V.

Авторы: Kopylova G.N., Lyubushin A.A., Boldina S.V.
Журнал: Seismic Instruments
Том: 55
Номер: 5
Год издания: 2019
Первая страница: 507
Последняя страница: 523
Оригинальные версии: Статистический анализ прецизионных данных наблюдений за уровнем подземных вод в сейсмоактивном регионе (на примере скважины ЮЗ-5, Камчатка) , Статистический анализ прецизионных данных наблюдений за уровнем подземных вод в сейсмоактивном регионе (на примере скважины ЮЗ-5, Камчатка)
DOI: 10.3103/S0747923919050086
Аннотация: A new method is presented for statistical analysis of long-term time series of water level observationsaimed at distinguishing short-term disturbances; observation data from the YuZ-5 well, located in thePetropavlovsk Geodynamic Test Area, eastern Kamchatka, are considered. These data (from July 27, 2012,to February 1, 2018) are remarkable for their degree of detail: the sampling rate of the water level and atmosphericpressure measurements was 5 min and the sensitivity (accuracy) was ±0.1 cm for water level recordingand ±0.1 hPa for atmospheric pressure. Also, five strong earthquakes with Mw = 6.5–8.3 occurred at epicentraldistances of de = 80–700 km during the observation period. A thorough analysis of the hydrodynamicregime of the observation well over a long period and the high quality of observation data, together with thedata on strong seismic events, allow us to consider the possibility of using formalized statistical methods ofwater level data processing for diagnostics of anomalous conditions. As a result of factor and cluster analysisapplied to the sequence of multidimensional vectors of the statistical properties of water level time series insuccessive one-day-long time windows, after adaptive compensation for atmospheric pressure, four differentstatistically significant states of time series, replacing each other in time, are distinguished. Geophysical interpretationof the anomalous conditions of the water level time series (with a probability of 0.013) is carried outin comparison to strong earthquakes, technical conditions of observations, and seasonal features of thehydrodynamic regime in the observation well. It is shown that this method of water level data processing candetect short-term anomalies in the hydrogeodynamic regime of a well, significantly supplementing traditionalprocessing of water level data aimed mostly at finding low-frequency trends in water level changes. Thismethod can be applied in geophysical monitoring and prediction of earthquakes from online processing ofwater level data in wells.
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Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatkaстатья Исследовательская статья Перевод

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