How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change

Krysanova, V.; Donnelly; Gelfan, A.; Gerten, D.; Arheimer, B.; Hattermann, F.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.

Информация о цитировании статьи получена из Web of Science, Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 27 ноября 2019 г.

Авторы: Krysanova, V, Donnelly, Gelfan, A, Gerten, D, Arheimer, B, Hattermann, F, Kundzewicz, Z W.
Журнал: Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences, Hydrologiques
Том: 63
Номер: 5
Год издания: 2018
Издательство: International Association of Hydrological Sciences Press
Местоположение издательства: United Kingdom
Первая страница: 696
Последняя страница: 720
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2018.1446214
Аннотация: Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested
Добавил в систему: Гельфан Александр Наумович

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