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Experiments with the global high-resolution model MPI ESM and several estimations of its stability to the initial perturbationстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
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Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 7 июля 2020 г.
- Авторы: Belyaev K., Mikhaylov G., Salnikov A., Tuchkova N.
- Журнал: CEUR Workshop Proceedings
- Том: 2543
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: M. Jeusfeld c/o Redaktion Sun SITE, Informatik V, RWTH Aachen
- Местоположение издательства: Aachen, Germany
- Первая страница: 345
- Последняя страница: 353
- Аннотация: The studies used the high-resolution MPI-ESM model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany). The simulation results of this model have been performed and analyzed on the supercomputer Lomonosov-2 of Lomonosov Moscow State University. In the experiments, an ensemble of different initial data was created and the model was integrated for different periods, starting with this data. To analyze the results, different statistical methods have been used, as well as author's estimates based on ensemble experiments. We studied the extreme characteristics of ocean level, surface temperature, ice cover and several others over a period of 30 years. Their statistical distribution was constructed, the parameters of this distribution were found out and the statistical forecast was studied. It is shown that the statistical forecast of the level and surface temperature corresponds to the calculated forecast obtained by the model. The localization of extreme level values was studied and an analysis of these results was carried out. Based on the results of studies, estimates are made for the behavior of complex nonlinear models, sensitivity to initial disturbances, and analysis of the behavior of these disturbances. It is shown that the behavior of such nonlinear systems is quantitatively described by the statistical characteristics of the simulation results. A method is also proposed for analyzing the asymptotic behavior of these characteristics with a long integration time. Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors.
- Добавил в систему: Сальников Алексей Николаевич