Reconstruction of the hazardous flood of 2014 in Magadan city based on coupled hydrometeorological modellingстатья
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Аннотация:The study assessed the possibility of using a deterministic
distributed hydrological model Hydrograph to calculate the maximum
discharge of catastrophic flood at the Magadanka River (48.5 km2, city of
Magadan, North-East of Russia) in 2014. The model parameters were not
calibrated but borrowed from previously performed regional modelling
studies. To verify the Hydrograph model streamflow simulations with daily
time step were carried out for the period 1971-2015. The median value of
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.42 for a period of 44 years, which, given
the lack of a meteorological station within the catchment, made it possible
to evaluate the results as satisfactory. For the catastrophic flood
calculation, two types of precipitation data were used: hourly data on
precipitation from the nearest weather station and distribution of
precipitation for the watershed from the meteorological model WRF. The
flood hydrographs were estimated for the initial and corrected sets of the
model parameters. The initial set of the model parameters allowed for
proper timing of the flood peak but underestimated “observed” maximum
value. We introduced the decreasing correction coefficient to the
infiltration parameter of the model to “stretch out” the peak and volume of
hydrographs. The results have shown that combining the meteorological
input from weather station and regional meteorological model may allow
for successful flood simulations in ensemble mode.