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Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019статья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 25 ноября 2020 г.
- Авторы: Wang Haidong, Abbas Kaja M., Abbasifard Mitra, Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen, Abbastabar Hedayat, Abd-Allah Foad, Abdelalim Ahmed, Abolhassani Hassan, Abreu Lucas Guimarães, Abrigo Michael R.M., Abushouk Abdelrahman I., Adabi Maryam, Adair Tim, Adebayo Oladimeji M., Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi Victor, Adeoye Abiodun Moshood, Adetokunboh Olatunji O., Advani Shailesh M., Afshin Ashkan, Aghaali Mohammad, Agrawal Anurag, Ahmadi Keivan, Ahmadieh Hamid, Ahmed Muktar Beshir, Al-Aly Ziyad, Alam Khurshid, Alam Tahiya, Alanezi Fahad Mashhour, Alanzi Turki M., Alcalde-Rabanal Jacqueline Elizabeth, Ali Muhammad, Alicandro Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh Mehran, Alinia Cyrus, Alipour Vahid, Alizade Hesam, Aljunid Syed Mohamed, Allebeck Peter, Almadi Majid Abdulrahman Hamad, Almasi-Hashiani Amir, Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M., Altirkawi Khalid A., Alumran Arwa Khalid, Alvis-Guzman Nelson, Amini-Rarani Mostafa, Aminorroaya Arya, Amit Arianna Maever L., Ancuceanu Robert, Andrei Catalina Liliana, Androudi Sofia, Angus Colin, Anjomshoa Mina, Ansari Fereshteh, Ansari Iman, Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza, Antonio Carl Abelardo T., Antony Catherine M., Anvari Davood, Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo Jalal, Arab-Zozani Morteza, Aravkin Aleksandr Y., Aremu Olatunde, Ärnlöv Johan, Aryal Krishna K., Asadi-Pooya Ali A., Asgari Samaneh, Asghari Jafarabadi Mohammad, Atteraya Madhu Sudhan, Ausloos Marcel, Avila-Burgos Leticia, Avokpaho Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur, Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina, Ayano Getinet, Ayanore Martin Amogre, Azarian Ghasem, Babaee Ebrahim, Badiye Ashish D., Bagli Eleni, Bahrami Mohammad Amin, Bakhtiari Ahad, Balassyano Shelly, Banach Maciej, Banik Palash Chandra, Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen Till Winfried, Barzegar Akbar, Basu Sanjay, Baune Bernhard T., Bayati Mohsen, Bazmandegan Gholamreza, Bedi Neeraj, Bell Michellr L., Bennett Derrick A., Gitimoghaddam Mojgan, Glushkova Ekaterina Vladimirovna, Gnedovskaya Elena V., Gopalani Sameer Vali, Goulart Alessandra C., Gugnani Harish Chander, Guo Yuming, Gupta Rajeev, Gupta Subodh Sharan, Haagsma Juanita A., Haj-Mirzaian Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian Arya, Halvaei Iman, Hamadeh Randah R., Hamagharib Abdullah Kanaan, Han Chieh, Handiso Demelash Woldeyohannes, Hankey Graeme J., Haririan Hamidreza, Haro Josep Maria, Hasaballah Ahmed I., Hassanipour Soheil, Hassankhani Hadi, Hay Simon I., Heibati Behzad, Heidari-Soureshjani Reza, Henny Kiana, Henry Nathaniel J., Herteliu Claudiu, Heydarpour Fatemeh, Hole Michael K., Hoogar Praveen, Hosgood H.Dean, Hossain Naznin, Hosseinzadeh Mehdi, Hostiuc Mihaela, Hostiuc Sorin, Househ Mowafa, Hoy Damian G., Hu Guoqing, Huda Tanvir M., Ibitoye Segun Emmanuel, Ikuta Kevin S., Koul Parvaiz A., Koyanagi Ai, Kravchenko Michael A., Krishan Kewal, Krohn Kris J., Kuate Defo Barthelemy, Kumar G.Anil, Kumar Manasi, Kumar Pushpendra, Kumar Vivek, Kusuma Dian, Kyu Hmwe Hmwe, La Vecchia Carlo, Lacey Ben, Lal Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo Ratilal, Lami Faris Hasan, Lansky Sonia, Larson Samantha Leigh, Larsson Anders O., Lasrado Savita, Lassi Zohra S., Lazarus Jeffrey V., Lee Paul H., Lee Shaun Wen Huey, Leever Andrew T., LeGrand Kate E., Leonardi Matilde, Li Shanshan, Lim Lee-Ling, Lim Stephen S., Linn Shai, Lodha Rakesh, Logroscino Giancarlo, Lopez Alan D., Lopukhov Platon D., Lotufo Paulo A., Lozano Rafael, Lu Alton, Lunevicius Raimundas, Madadin Mohammed, Maddison Emilie R., Magdy Abd El Razek Hassan, Magdy Abd El Razek Muhammed, Mahasha Phetole Walter, Peprah Emmanuel K., Pereira Alexandre, Pereira David M., Perico Norberto, Pigott David M., Pilgrim Thomas, Pilz Tessa M., Piradov Michael A., Pirsaheb Meghdad, Pokhrel Khem Narayan, Postma Maarten J., Pourjafar Hadi, Pourmalek Farshad, Pourshams Akram, Poznańska Anna, Prada Sergio I., Prakash Sanjay, Preotescu Liliana, Quazi Syed Zahiruddin, Rabiee Mohammad, Rabiee Navid, Radfar Amir, Rafiei Alireza, Raggi Alberto, Rahman Muhammad Aziz, Rajabpour-Sanati Ali, Ram Pradhum, Ranabhat Chhabi Lal, Rao Sowmya J., Rasella Davide, Rashedi Vahid, Rastogi Prateek, Rathi Priya, Rawal Lal, Remuzzi Giuseppe, Renjith Vishnu, Renzaho Andre M.N., Resnikoff Serge, Rezaei Nima, Rezai Mohammad sadegh, Rezapour Aziz, Rickard Jennifer, Roever Leonardo, Ronfani Luca, Roshandel Gholamreza, Rostamian Morteza, Rubagotti Enrico, Rwegerera Godfrey M., Sabour Siamak, Saddik Basema, Sadeghi Ehsan, Sadeghi Masoumeh, Saeedi Moghaddam Sahar, Safari Yahya, Safi Sare, Safiri Saeid, Sagar Rajesh, Sahebkar Amirhossein, Sahraian Mohammad Ali, Vasconcelos Ana Maria Nogales, Vasseghian Yasser, Veisani Yousef, Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy, Vidale Simone, Violante Francesco S., Vlassov Vasily, Vollset Stein Emil, Vos Theo, Murray Christopher J.L.
- Журнал: The Lancet
- Том: 396
- Номер: 10258
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: The Lancet Publishing Group
- Местоположение издательства: United Kingdom
- Первая страница: 1160
- Последняя страница: 1203
- DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30977-6
- Аннотация: SummaryBackgroundAccurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.FindingsThe global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.InterpretationOver the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.
- Добавил в систему: Кравченко Михаил Андреевич