The Unpredictability of Earthquakes as the Fundamental Result of the Nonlinearity of Geodynamic Systemsстатья
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Статья опубликована в журнале из перечня ВАК
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 4 февраля 2014 г.
Аннотация:The pursuit of geocataclysm prediction is stimulated by aprioristic confidence in the idea that it can be in principle achieved. This means that small variations in the conditions of the course of a process should generate predictably small variations in its result. In reality, only the following aspects can be predicted: the character of a process as a whole and that of its separate stages; attractor type; and the scenarios of its transition from stage to stage. However, successful predictions of particular events are rare because of
the extreme dependence of nonlinear geological systems on variations in initial conditions. Precursors exist, but their efficiency is unpredictably irregular. The rare successes of predictions can be attributed to the weak requirements for forecasts and their examination, as well as to random coincidence with reality.
Keywords: geocataclysm, earthquake, nonlinearity, forecast, system