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Modeling and Forecasting GDP Production in Russia, Taking into Account Changes in the Number of Working-Age Population Caused by the Retirement Age Increasingстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 8 июня 2021 г.
- Авторы: Skufina T., Baranov S., Samarina V.
- Сборник: Proceeding of the International Science and Technology Conference "FarEastСon 2019"
- Серия: Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
- Том: 172
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: Springer Singapore
- Местоположение издательства: Singapore
- Первая страница: 201
- Последняя страница: 209
- DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-2244-4_17
- Аннотация: The paper is devoted to the research of the problem of the influence of the retirement age rising on production processes in a specific country—Russia. The work is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting. The peculiarity of the paper is an assessment of the sensitivity of Russia’s GDP to changes in the number of working-age population caused by an increase in the retirement age in Russia beginning from 2019. The econometric model of Russia’s production, which establishes the relationship between the number of working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production, has been presented. The model fits with real data (the coefficient of determination is 0.98). To clarify the economic effects of the retirement age increasing, the authors have provided projected estimates of Russia’s GDP production, taking into account “old” and “new” (raising the retirement age) retirement schemes. Forecast estimates of GDP have been given in terms of three variants for the number of working-age population. It has been established that while maintaining the current level of investment in Russia, the drift in the number of able-bodied people caused by an increase in the retirement age will allow for a slight increase in Russia’s GDP: By 2036, for the high variant of the forecast, the growth will be 6%, for the average variant—4%, and for the low one—3%. It has been found that with the “old” scheme, preserving an earlier age for calculating pensions, by 2036 there will be a decrease in GDP production in all three variants in comparison with 2017. It has been concluded that retirement age rising is a factor positively influencing Russia’s economic growth, but, however, this impact is insignificant.
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