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Realistic choice of annual matrices contracts the range of lambdaS estimatesстатья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 1 февраля 2021 г.
- Авторы: Logofet D., Golubyatnikov L., Ulanova N.
- Журнал: Mathematics
- Том: 8
- Номер: 12
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: MDPI
- Местоположение издательства: Basel, Switzerland
- Первая страница: 1
- Последняя страница: 17
- Номер статьи: 2252
- DOI: 10.3390/math8122252
- Аннотация: In matrix population modeling the multi-year monitoring of a population structureresults in a set of annual population projection matrices (PPMs), which gives rise to the stochastic growth rate λS, a quantitative measure of long-term population viability. This measure is usually found in the paradigm of population growth in a variable environment. The environment isrepresented by the set of PPMs, and λS ensues from a long sequence of PPMs chosen at randomfrom the given set. because the known rules of random choice, such as the iid (independent andidentically distributed) matrices, are generally artificial, the challenge is to find a more realistic rule. We achieve this with the a following a Markov chain that models, in a certain sense, the real variations in the environment. We develop a novel method to construct the ruling Markov chain from long-term weather data and to simulate, in a Monte Carlo mode, the long sequences of PPMs resulting in the estimates of λS. The stochastic nature of sequences causes the estimates to vary within some range, and we compare the range obtained by the “realistic choice” from 10 PPMs for a local population of a Red-Book species to those using the iid choice. As noted in the title of this paper, this realistic choice contracts the range of λS estimates, thus improving the estimation and confirming the Red-Book status of the species.
- Добавил в систему: Уланова Нина Георгиевна
Прикрепленные файлы
| № | Имя | Описание | Имя файла | Размер | Добавлен |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | mathematics-08-02252.pdf | mathematics-08-02252.pdf | 553,3 КБ | 20 декабря 2020 [UlanovaNinaGeorgievna] |