Аннотация:Abstract
Only a few large Russian companies use the logistics process modeling, which increases their
efficiency and performance by reducing excess inventory and understocking costs. Most trade
enterprises are guided by the average indicators of demand and duration of delivery in their inventory
management. The inventory management model is presented in the article, which determines the
optimal date of ordering a delivery, taking the uncertainty of delivery terms into account. The criterion
for minimizing integral costs is considered as an efficiency criterion, taking excess inventory and
understocking costs into account. A triangular distribution is considered as the distribution law of a
random volume of demand, because it is one of the most applicable methods in conditions of
insufficient statistical data. This economic and mathematical model allows to optimize the delivery
date, subject to minimizing risks, based on statistical data on delivery terms for the previous period
or expert estimates, if such data are not available. This allows to build a probability distribution for a
random volume of demand and to determine the day of ordering the delivery of a new batch of goods
in the required volume and conditions for minimizing risks by analytical methods for a random delivery
time represented by a triangular distribution, which is new and distinguishes this model from previous
works.