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Russia in the 20-21 century: mathematical modeling based on the socio-energy approachстатья Исследовательская статья
- Автор: Petukhov Alexandr
- Сборник: 2020 4th Scientific School on Dynamics of Complex Networks and their Application in Intellectual Robotics (DCNAIR)
- Год издания: 2020
- Место издания: IEEE
- DOI: 10.1109/dcnair50402.2020.9216927
- Аннотация: Purpose. The article is devoted to modeling the socio-political development of Russia in 1910-2009 based on the author's socio-energy approach. In this paper, we briefly talk about the basics of the proposed approach, its principles and basic equations. Methods. The mathematical model is based on the Langevin diffusion equation. We also introduce the concepts of social energy, coefficients of the state of society and give them definitions.Results. Based on them, computer modeling is carried out and the characteristic regularity of the development of society in Russia in 1910-2009 is derived.Conclusions. We can notice the spiral pattern of the Russian society in the 20th century. Of course, the scale in this figure is not saved, because the time scale is the scale of conditional discrete time points, but the general trend is obvious. Depending on the density, scale and diversity of events «the flow» of history is accelerating, and the movement in the coil becomes «faster». Of course, statistics and the result of their analysis can both have significant errors (which depends primarily on the reliability and objectivity of statistical information), but the overall pattern is quite easily noticed. On its basis, the further development of the Russian society and the state as a whole can be predicted.
- Добавил в систему: Петухов Александр Юрьевич