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Forecasting the Indicators of Kondratiev’s Green Economic Wave (2018–2050), the “Great Energy Transition” and its Impact on the Socio-Economic Development of the Worldстатья
- Авторы: Akaev Askar A., Davydova Olga I.
- Сборник: Global Challenges of Climate Change
- Серия: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures (WSEGF)
- Том: 2
- Год издания: 2022
- Издательство: Springer Nature
- Местоположение издательства: Switzerland
- Первая страница: 181
- Последняя страница: 205
- DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-16470-5_12
- Аннотация: It’s known that since about 1850, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm, typical for the pre-industrial period and observed over many hundreds of years, to 421 ppm at present, that is more than 50%, which contributed to the dramatic climate change. Climate change has become one of the most pressing problems mankind faces. The temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere has risen by more than 1 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The impact of climate change is observed everywhere. Extreme weather conditions are becoming more rapid, harsh, and destructive. Droughts, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes have become more frequent, which negatively affects global socio-economic development. The authors research and establish a functional relationship between climate change and the socio-economic development of the world. This will make it possible to estimate how the implementation of one or another scenario of climate change will affect the global economy.The authors also developed a mathematical model that allows predicting the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere for various demographic scenarios, taking into account the required fuel and energy balance. The parameters of the model are identified utilizing the least squares method using historical data. The model made it possible to select the optimal scenarios of the Great Energy Transition (from the use of currently dominant fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) to renewable energy sources) that meet the requirements of the UN Paris Climate Agreement to keep global warming within 1.5–2 °C. The authors have shown that to implement the most ambitious scenarios, in addition to the significant increase of the share of renewable energy sources, the development of energy-efficient technologies, the development of mobile nuclear energy, the development of technologies for capturing and storing carbon, and the expansion of the use of hydrogen are also required.
- Добавил в систему: Давыдова Ольга Игоревна