|
ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
ИСТИНА ИНХС РАН |
||
THE GLOBAL FORECASTS THAT WORKстатья
- Автор: Asatiani Jumber
- Сборник: www.academia.edu
- Серия: ACADEMIA
- Год издания: 2017
- Первая страница: 1
- Последняя страница: 10
- Аннотация: "World 2035. Global Outlook" and the Declaration of G20 Leaders share the vision of middle and long-term future of the world. The Leaders of G20 underlined: "We are resolved to tackle common challenges to the global community, including terrorism, displacement, poverty, hunger and health threats, job creation, climate change, energy security, and inequality including gender inequality, as a basis for sustainable development and stability. We will continue to work together with others, including developing countries, to address these challenges, building on the rules - based international order." In the 21st century, the confrontation between capitalism and communism was replaced not by the "end of history", as many expected, but by the growth of nationalism, the conflict of moral values with a very vivid religious and historical-psychological coloring. Academician Alexander Dynkin presumes that in social policy, many countries will be forced to look for recipes for responding to the growing deepening inequality. Large-scale reformatting of the structure of society is expected. The Outlook is unique for the fact that the development of 189 countries is forecasted giving a really "big picture" of globalization and regionalization at the same time. Regionalization is seen as an important trend of global evolution. For Russia, the coming decades will be the search for one's place in this rapidly changing world. The search will be based on a combination of a sense of identity and an understanding of the country's global responsibility. Looking back, IMEMO researchers can be proud that their previous forecasts of the main trends of the world economic development have been confirmed. Moreover, some of the most important quantitative indicators were exactly up to their expectations. Thus, the real growth rate of world GDP in 2001-2015 was 3.7% - exactly the same as in the forecast for this period. It seems that this is a unique academic result in forecasting with a 15-year horizon. IMEMO slightly overestimated the GDP growth rate for a group of developed countries (the forecast was 2.6%, the actual growth was 1.7%) and, accordingly, underestimated the speed of development of developing countries (forecast - 4.7%, real growth rate 5.5%). Quite accurate was the forecast for the Russian economy - the actual rate of annual GDP growth over the same period amounted to 4.2%. In IMEMO forecast it was expected at 5.0%. The forecast of global development offered to the attention of the reader up to 2035 covers a much wider range of processes and phenomena than all previous works of a similar nature. Almost for sure, the experience of strategic forecasting gained over the decades, including its methodological component, will guarantee a fairly high probability of the forecast of the main trends and rates of their development for the next 18 years.
- Добавил в систему: Асатиани Джумбер Николаевич