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Preliminary analysis of the distribution of powerful x-ray flares on phases of solar cycleтезисы доклада
- Автор: Khlystov A.I.
- Сборник: Электронная версия на флэшке Cospar
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2014
- Место издания: Москва
- Аннотация: We use all powerful X-ray ares observations from 1976 up to 2013 to study a possible cor- relation between the moments of occurrence of ares and a phase of a solar cycle. The con- sidered time interval corresponds to cycles 21, 22 and 23 with maximum heights W21=164.5, W22=158.5 and W23=120.8. We nd that: 1)Only two of all of 30 ares considered have arisen on a branch of growth of cycles. The others 28 were observed or near to maxima of cycles, or on a decline branch. Probably it is a consequence of a speci c eld of velocities in a latitudes interval 15 on the Sun, favorable for work of the reconnection mechanism; 2)The number of powerful ares in a cycle does not correlate with its height: cycles 21 and 22 are almost identical on height (W21=164.5, W22=158.5), but the quantity of ares in them di ers almost in 2 times (8 ashes in 21-st cycle and 14 ashes in 22-nd). At the same time cycles 21 and 23, appreciably distinguished on height, gave identical quantity of ashes (8 ares in each cycle); 3)In the lowest 23-rd cycle (W23= 120.8) there were the most powerful ares for all period of observations: two ares of class X17, one are of class X20 and, apparently, unique for last 144 years super are of class X28+. The conclusion is made, that approximately up to 2019 it is possible to expect occurrence of M-class ares and X-class ares up to X8. More powerful ares are not excluded as well. Probability of the super power ares on the scale of that in 1859 (Carrington event) is low.
- Добавил в систему: Хлыстов Анатолий Ильич