Estimating the duration of the lithospheric failure cycle from earthquake catalogsстатья
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Аннотация:The incorporation of the fractal geometry of seismicity allows one to correctly extrapolate representative
statistical estimates of seismicity parameters obtained in various volumes of the medium into the
domain of physically actual spatial dimensions of fractured portions of the medium. On this basis, seismic statistics
can be related to the physics of failure. This paper develops a methodological apparatus based on the generalized
earthquake recurrence law and enabling the estimation of the duration of the failure cycle, which is one
of the fundamental parameters of the seismic regime, from data of earthquake catalogs. Initial data were taken
from two catalogs: the global catalog of the International Seismological Center and the regional catalog of the
Kamchatka Experimental Methodological Seismological Department, Geological Service, Russian Academy
of Sciences. Maps were constructed showing the distribution of the lithospheric failure cycle at the global level
(the main seismic belts of the Earth) and at the regional level for the Kamchatka Peninsula. Estimates of the
failure cycle duration based on data from these seismic catalogs for the last 40 years vary from a few hundreds
of years to a few tens of thousands of years; this range agrees with the known direct estimates derived from
paleoseismological and geological data in various regions. Regular patterns of the seismic cycle duration as a
function of the failure scale are established, and their typical distinctions between compressional (island arc)
and extensional (oceanic rift) tectonic structures are discovered. The results are discussed in terms of the kinetic
concept of strength.