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Short-term Numerical Forecast System COSMO-Ru2By: Short Description and Skill of Forecasts of b- and г-mesoscale Processesстатья
- Авторы: Rozinkina I.A., Rivin G.S., Bagrov A.N., Blinov D.V., Bykov F.L., Vaskova D.V., Zakharchenko D.I., Bundel A.Yu, Kirsanov A.A., Poliukhov A.A., Shatunova M.V., Shuvalova Yu O., Eliseev G.V., Astakhova E.D., Nikitin A.E.
- Журнал: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
- Том: 49
- Номер: S1
- Год издания: 2024
- Издательство: Allerton Press Inc.
- Местоположение издательства: United States
- Первая страница: S48
- Последняя страница: S63
- DOI: 10.3103/s106837392413003x
- Аннотация: This paper presents an outline of short-term regional forecast system based on the COSMO-Ru2By configuration (with a mesh size of 2.2 km) of the COSMO model, which provides numerical weather forecasts up to 48 hours for the European part of Russia and for the Republic of Belarus. The description is accompanied by analysis of verification results. The COSMO-Ru2By system has been implemented at the Hydrometcenter of Russia through the Collaboration Program with Belhydromet and now it is an integral part of the COSMO-Ru operational limited-area numerical weather prediction system running on the CRAY XC40-LC supercomputer of Roshydromet. The COSMO-Ru2By technology has several features: (1) an explicit simulation of deep convection, (2) a vast integration domain, (3) integrated assimilation of the Doppler meteorological radar data and (4) a coupled visualization system that provides a multitude of charts, including maps for different regions that cascadingly increase the details of images. All these aspects are important for forecasting rapidly developing weather processes over the coming hours. The operational trials conducted in 2020–2021 under the supervision of the Roshydromet Central Methodological Commission on Forecasts demonstrated high quality of near-surface weather parameter forecasts with the COSMO-Ru2By, which were significantly more accurate than products from other numerical weather forecast models available to forecasters at the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The comparison with non-hydrostatic models with coarser resolution (e.g., the COSMO-Ru6ENA with a mesh size of 6.6 km) as well with configurations with the same mesh size running in other technologic scenario was made. This analysis was focused on the model capacity of predicting of highly variable weather parameters (such as wind gusts, precipitation, and weather parameters in mountainous areas). For this purpose, the authors employed several additional approaches: assessments over geographically homogeneous areas, the use of special metrics for verifying forecasts of rare events, and comparisons of forecasts with radar data.
- Добавил в систему: Полюхов Алексей Андреевич