|
ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
ИСТИНА ИНХС РАН |
||
Uncertainty Factor in Search and Resque and Marine Oil Spill Modellingстатья
- Авторы: Solbakov V.V., Zatsepa S.N., Ivchenko A.A.
- Сборник: Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Год издания: 2025
- Издательство: Springer Nature
- Местоположение издательства: Switzerland
- Первая страница: 61
- Последняя страница: 75
- DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-77711-0_3
- Аннотация: Predicting floating objects, ships and oil spills drift on the sea is an actual area for the application of mathematical modeling. All drift models depend heavily on hydrometeorological forecast data. The delineation of search and rescue (SAR) areas is directly dependent on the uncertainty of wind, current and wave forecasts, the uncertainty of the properties of the objects of interest and the last known position. For oil and oil product spill incidents at sea, the volume of the discharge, the duration of the discharge, the time of the start of the discharge, and errors in the estimation of hydrometeorological parameters are uncertain. Ocean forecasts are the component with the greatest potential to improve the accuracy of the SAR areas. Effective inter-action between drift forecasting services and the users, the first responders, is vital to obtain the optimum benefit from the forecasts. The application of experience in predicting the spread of oil spills at sea and the visualization of model information are useful for modern methods of determining SAR areas. We present a new method for quantifying the areas of possible floating object detection on the sea surface using a probability density function for the coordinates of the spill. The method enables building a stable assessment of the search area boundaries in which search object with a given probability level can be detected.
- Добавил в систему: Солбаков Вячеслав В.