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Аннотация:The “medium” population projection series by the UN Population Division forecasts nearcatastrophic
population increase for a whole number of Tropical African countries, especially East
African ones. However, the projections for Mozambique, appearing somewhat less ominous than those
for the neighboring Zambia, Tanzania, and Malawi, do not account for the recent fertility dynamics in
Mozambique. Indeed, the projection implies a rather rapid fertility decline, while in reality it has been
not just stalled, but even growing during the latest decade. We present our own population projection
for Mozambique based on the UN version, but taking into account the recent fertility dynamics. We
also model two more demographic scenarios, the “inertial” one (continuation of the current trends)
and the “optimistic” one (acceleration to the Iranian pace of fertility transition). We evaluate the
difference in terms of total population and various age cohort numbers between these scenarios, and
reveal some of their crucial implications for Mozambican development prospects.