Forensic application of decision theory for the choice of DNA identity threshold: Verifying the model parameters by empirical dataстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 27 января 2018 г.
Аннотация:Apart from assessing the objective statistical value for DNA identification reliability, choosing the criterion to establish the genetic identity inevitably invokes the subjective factor. The crucial point of decision-making regarding the identity threshold is unavoidable given any degree the DNA identification reliability. In 2001 Goubko and Perepechina have developed the mathematical model based on DNA information describing forensic aspects of applying decision theory to court sentences. The model is rooted in the hypothesis of rational behavior to reveal the factors influencing decision-making and aims to study the border probability values sufficient for the judgment. The key element of the model was to determine empirically the balance of type I vs. type II judgment errors perceived by the society, that could be elicited from a special poll. Recently (2015) the model was refined and the preliminary survey on the limited sample was carried out. The present paper reports the results of the further research and discusses the empirical data concerning type I vs. type II judgment errors. The results obtained seem to be noteworthy when dealing with the problem of evaluating the identity threshold.