Runoff fluctuations in the Selenga River Basinстатья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
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Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 14 августа 2017 г.
Аннотация:Abstract The Selenga River has historically provided 50%ofthe total freshwater water input to the Lake Baikal,transporting substances and pollutants that can considerablyimpact the unique lake ecosystem. In the context of on-goingregional to global change, we here aim at identifying andunderstanding mechanisms behind spatial and temporal variabilityand trends in the flow of the Selenga River and itstributaries, based on hydrological and meteorological stationdata (since the 1930s), remote sensing, and statistical analyses.Results show that the flow of the Selenga River exhibits cycleswith phases of high flows lasting 12 to 17 years andphases of low flows that historically lasted for about 7 years.However, despite an asynchronous behavior between rightbanktributaries and left-bank tributaries, the flow of theSelenga River near its delta at Lake Baikal has now beenlow (30% below the 1934–1975 average) for as long as20 years, due to reduced input from precipitation, particularlyduring the summer season. Observed decreases in annualmaximum hourly flows and decreases in annual minimum30-day flows are consistent with increasing activation of thegroundwater system due to thawing permafrost, and higherwinter temperatures that support increased winter flows bypreventing rivers to freeze from top to bottom. These recentand relatively large changes have implications for regionalwater planning and management, including the plannedlarge-scale hydropower expansion in the upper part of theSelenga River Basin.